Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,134$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,020.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(49,020.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,094$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(254 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,521.1}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,521.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,255$ on 2020-04-26

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $226,629$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,954.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(218,954.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,190$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,649.3}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(22,649.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85,712$ on 2020-04-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,675$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{195,620.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(195,620.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,644$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,643.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26,643.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $106,103$ on 2020-04-26

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $162,220$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,790.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(182,790.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,890$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,598.2}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23,598.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,649$ on 2020-04-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $154,037$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,877.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(170,877.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,794$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(766 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,196.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(22,196.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $132,465$ on 2020-04-26

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,040$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,564.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,564.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,491$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(269 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,683.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,683.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,432$ on 2020-04-26

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,262$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(545 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,032.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,032.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,087$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(14.3 \times 10^{0.041t}\) (doubling rate \(7.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,299.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,299.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,942$ on 2020-04-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,640$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(737 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,447.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23,447.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,194$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(76.6 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,846.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,846.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,441$ on 2020-04-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 84%
Luxembourg recovered 81%
Austria recovered 74%
Switzerland recovered 61%
Malta recovered 54%
Germany recovered 45%
Denmark recovered 39%
Croatia recovered 31%
Andorra recovered 30%
North Macedonia recovered 16%
Czechia recovered 14%
Lithuania recovered 11%
Italy recovered 2%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,792$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(260 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.5}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $174$ on 2020-04-26

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,723$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(438 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,579.9}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,579.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(10.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(88.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $531$ on 2020-04-26

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,225$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,742.4}{1 + 10^{-0.088 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,742.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $542$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(42 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(562.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,401$ on 2020-04-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,061$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,396.4}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(28,396.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,610$ on 2020-04-26

Best fit exponential: \(97.3 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,654.9}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,654.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,651$ on 2020-04-26